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 | EUROVISION 2007 DRAW |
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FINAL DRAW
ANALYSIS |
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Fingers Crossed
(No prediction) |
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Thumbs up
(Likely Top 10) |
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Thumbs down
(Unlikely to make the Top 10)
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BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA : Having
achieved its best ever Eurovision result in 2006, Bosnia has
again chosen an ethnic flavoured ballad for Helsinki,
although few will argue that 2007 singer Marija Sestic is a
little easier on the eye than Hari Mata Hari was last year.
This is Bosnia's first time opening the contest. The only
previous time that Bosnia performed in the first three songs
was in 2001 when "Hano" finished 14th in
Copenhagen. For the second year in a row, following
Switzerland in 2006, the final opens with a ballad, but
history suggests that if you want to open the show and win
the contest, you need an uptempo song. Three winners have come from this draw position
"Dinge Dong" in 1975, "Save All Your Kisses
For Me" in 1976 and "Diggl-loo, Diggy-lay" in
1984. On a more positive note, the last time an opening song
finished in the Top 5, was Croatia's ballad "Neka Mi Ne
Svane" in 1998 and this year's Bosnian entry is very
much in the same style. However, all in all this is not the
best of draws for Bosnia.
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SPAIN : Having finished in the
bottom five in the last two years, Spain will be hoping for
a reversal of fortune in Helsinki, with boyband Nash
carrying Spanish hopes. Spain hasn't had a late draw since
televoting becan in 1997 and would have have hoped that the
law of averages might favour them with a late slot in 2007.
Instead the Spaniards have gotten the worst possible
position in the draw. On average the second song performed
has taken by far the lowest points over the past three
years, and historically, none of the fifty one songs that
have been performed in this position has won the contest.
Last year Moldove had this draw and finished in the bottom
5. In 2004 another boyband had this draw, and Austria's
Tie-Break finished 21st. If there is a tiny cause for hope,
then it is that Spain will have the first uptempo song in
the show and Cyprus's boyband opened the contest in 2002
with a similar song to this year's Spanish entry, and
finished 6th, however realistically, that's the best Spain
could hope for after this draw.
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QUALIFIER : Perhaps surprisingly four previous
winners had this draw position. "Dors Mon
Amour" for France in 1958, "Un Banc, Un Arbre, Une
Rue" for Monaco in 1971, "Rock'N'Roll Kids"
for Ireland in 1994 and in 1969, "Vivo Cantando"
became one of the four winners, for Spain. This year this
slot will be filled by the first qualifier, and given how
difficult it will be to come through the semi-final, it's
likely to be a good song, but the happiness of qualifying
must be offset by knowing that this is not a good draw
position, as Israel discovered in 2006. However a year
earlier, Malta finished second from this draw, so anything
is possible.
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IRELAND : After two late draws in
the final in 2006 and 2004, Ireland returns to one of the
early slots in the running order for the first time since
Mickey Harte draw #3 in 2003. This will be Ireland's third
time performing at #4. In 1965, "Walking The Streets In
The Rain", the debut Irish entry had this draw, and
likewise "Happy Man" in 1979. Both of those
songs finished in the Top 6, but that was in the era of
juries, and in recent years, the advent of telvoting has
meant at early draw is not generally an advatage, as Latvia
discovered with this draw position in 2006. The only winner to come from this draw was Turkey's "Every Way That I Can" in 2003.
Coming before the home entry, is also hardly an advantage,
but for Ireland a lot depends on which country is draw
before it. If it's a ballad like Serbia or Latvia, then it
could be curtains for Dervish, and not just those mentioned
in their song's lyrics.
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FINLAND
: This is Finland's third time getting this draw slot and in
an ironic twist it was this position that saw the first
Finnish in 1961 when "Valoa Ikkunassa" finished
10th. Now the first Finnish host entry gets the same draw.
Two winners have had this draw "Nocturne" for
Norway in 1995 and "Een Beetje" for the
Netherlands in 1959. Last year Norway also got this draw,
but ended up being relegated, but the year earlier andother
Norwegian entry reached the Top 10 with a rock entry in a
similar style to this Finnish song. Up to recent years, it
has been believed that the host entry has a slight
advantage, by gaining more attention, and extra support in
the arena, however after Ukraine's poor result in 2005, and
Greece's disappointing result after being one of the
favourites in 2006, it's doubtful if Finland can come
anywhere near last year's success.
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QUALIFIERS : For the next three
countries, once again the joy of qualifying from the
semi-final, will be offset by the rather poor draw positions
they gain in the final. None of three draw positions has
produced a Top 5 result in the last four years. The only
good news is that the only Top 10 result from these draw
positions, since the new format was by a qualifier (Moldova
in 2005). Netherlands might like to be drawn #6 and hope for
a repeat of the victory of "Net Als Toen" from
1957 or #8 just as "Die Troubador" was drawn in
1969. However Denmark and Israel also have a sentimental
attraction to #8, as Denmark's first winner: "Dansevise"
in 1963 and Israel's most recent winner "Diva" in
1998, also had this draw. |
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LITHUANIA : Having had a pretty
poor record in the Eurovision Song Contest, things took a
dramatic change for the better for Lithuania in 2006, when
the novelty song "We Are The Winners" finished in
the Top 10. This year's Lithuanian entry couldn't be a
bigger contrast to that song and many for that "Love Or
Leave" needed to be late in the draw to be remembered
by televoters. Instead this draw position, coming after
three qualifiers may make it very difficult to gain a
another good result. Lithuania had a similar draw position
in 2001, when "You Got Style" was drawn at #8, and
finished 13th. On the bright side this is good draw
position for producing winners with Switzerland's
"Refrain" winning the first contest in in 1956 being followed
by "Un Premier Amour" for France in 1962,
"Merci Cherie" for Austria in 1966 and "Ne
Partez Pas Sans Moi" for Switzerland in 1988.
Unfortunately four of the last six songs performed at #9
have finished in the Top 10, with Albania in 2004 being the
only exception. Lithuania's hopes may depend on which thre
songs are performed before it.
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GREECE
: This is Greece's fifth time getting this draw, however the
only time they've scored a Top 10 hit from it came in 1977
when "Máthema Solfege" finished 5th. Israel
is the only winner to come from #10 with
"Hallelujah" in 1979. This has been a very good
draw position in recent years with Ukraine winning in 2004
and Russia finishing as runner-up in 2006. Bar getting a
wildcard and choosing their own position in the draw, Greece
could hardly have hoped for better, coming after Lithuania's
ballad. However there are two potential problems, were
Turkey to qualify and draw #11, both songs would be likely
to wipe one another out, and despite the good result of
Ukraine in 2006, the country that has hosted he previous
yeaar's contest has tended to do badly in the contest. |
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QUALIFIER : The #11 slot
was lucky for Luxembourg in 1973 with "Tu Te
Reconnaitras" and for the U.K. in 1967 with
"Puppet On A String". In recent years, Israel in
2005 and Russia in 2003, both came close to winning for this
slot, but last year Macedonia was relegated. If Turkey
qualifies, they will be hoping to avoid this draw next to
Greece and none of the rock flavoured semi-finalists are
likely to want to come before Sweden.
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SWEDEN : This is Sweden's fourth
time getting this draw, and on every previous occasion,
they've scored a Top 10 result. Additionally, two formers winners had this draw position,
Ireland's "All Kinds Of Everything" in 1970 and
and Italy's "No Ho L'eta". However recently this
slot has been a graveyard of favourites with Sweden in 2002
and Spain in 2003 both disappointing their supporters. It is
virtually impossible to call how good or bad this draw is for
Sweden as we don't know the song that come before it. The one
good think for The Ark might be that it will probably come immediately before the
break which may help it stay in people's minds. which most
likely helped Romania's "Tornero" gain a Top 5
result in 2006.
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FRANCE : This is France's third
time getting this position in the draw and after making a
big effort with its national selection, French television
will be hoping for a repeat of 1961, when "Tom
Pillibi" brought victory. Other winner to come from
this draw are "La Det Swinge" for Norway in 1995 and
"J'Aime La Vie" for Belgium in 1986. It had been
thought that coming after the break, as "L'Amour A La
Francais" is likely to do this year, was a disadvantage
but last year Bosnia finished 3rd from this draw. Because we
don't know who will perform after France it's hard to make a
good assessment of this draw, and were Israel to qualify and
get #14, it would be very bad news. However being drawn away
from Romania's similar multi-lingual song must be a good
thing for France.
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QUALIFIER : The #14 draw has produced five winners; "Nous Les
Amoureux" in 1961, "Un Jour Un Enfant" for
France in 1969, "Making Your Mind Up" for the U.K.
in 1981, "In Your Eyes" for Ireland in 1993 and
"Fly On The Wings Of Love" in 2000. Last year
Lithuania gained its best ever result from this draw, but a
year earlier it was
the position that saw Sweden relegated for the first time.
Israel won't want this draw if they qualify, but few other
countries will have a complaint.
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RUSSIA : This is Russia's first
time getting this draw, but in 2004 "Believe Me"
was drawn at #14, and this year Russia has a song by the
same songwriter. In 2004 Russia finished 11th and Macedonia
in 2005 and the U.K. in 2006, actually did worse. This draw
position has given us three winners; "Poupee De Cire,
Poupee De Son" for Luxembourg in 1965, "La La
La" for Spain in 1968 and "Take Me To Your
Heaven" for Sweden in 1999. Once again, a lot depends
on what gets drawn before Russia, but the contrast to the
German entry that comes after it should be a help.
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GERMANY : This is one of the draw
positions that has never produced a winner and apart from
Greece in 2004 and 2006 the results in recent years have been
universally awful since the U.K. finished 2nd in 1998. For
the last two years, this has been the draw position of the
host country, and neither Ukraine in 2005 or Greece in 2006
came anywhere near the doing as the local audience expected.
This is Germany's third time getting this draw and the best
result came in 1987 when "Laß' die Sonne in dein Herz"
was beaten by "Hold Me Now". With a unique swing
sounding song, Roger Cicero's German entry is likely to
standout no matter whiich qualifier comes after it. Despite
that, this was a very strange choice of position by the
German Head Of Delegation, when he was given a
"wildcard". |
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QUALIFIER : Traditionally #17
has been a good draw for Ireland, producing three victories
with "What's Another Year" in 1980, "Why
Me?" in 1992 and "The Voice" in 1996.
Luxembourg as won from this draw with "Apres Toi"
in 1972 and in 2006, this position brough victory for
Finland's "Hard Rock Hallelejah". Previously this draw has been a
disaster with only "Il Faut De Temps" in 2002
reaching the Top 5. In 2004 Iceland was relegated from this
draw position and in 2005 Germany finished last. Being
sandwiched between Germany's swing song and Ukraine's cross
dress extravaganza is not going to be a comfortable position
for whichever semi-finalist gets this position. |
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UKRAINE : The second
"wildcard" went to Ukraine, who chose to perform
at #18. That may have been a surprise until you realise that
it was this position that gave Ukraine a surprising Top 10
finish in 2006. The #18 position has produced three winners;
"L'Oiseau Et L'Enfant" for France in 1977 and a
year later "Aba-Ni-Bi" for Israel and "A
Little Peace" in 1982 for Germany, however all these
songs were either at the end of the running order or close to
the end. In recent years this draw has been a bit of a mixed
bag, with no overall trend. Coming this late in the
draw will certainly help ensure that Verda Serduchka will be
remembered, and unless Denmark qualifies, gets drawn at #17
and creates a drag queen overdose, it's hard not to see
Ukraine in th Top 10. |
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UNITED KINGDOM : It's the seond
time for the U.K. to get this draw, following "Better
The Devil You Know" in 1993, which memorably finised
2nd in Millstreet. here
have been two winners from this draw position, Italy's
"Insieme 1992" which won in Zagreb in 1990 and
"My Number One" which won for Greece in 2005.
Being late in the running order would normally be seen as
a good draw, but for the second year, the U.K. comes
after one of the big novelty enties. Last year the UK
finished in 19th place after following Lithuania on stage
and in 2006 it's hard to think of a worse position that
being sandwiched between the Ukranian and Romanian novelty
songs. |
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ROMANIA : After having a run of
three late entries in the running order between 2002 and
2004, Romania gained their best result from an early draw in
2005. Now Romania are back in the closing section of the
contest and might be closer than ever to their first
Eurovision win.
Three songs have come from this starting position; "Si
La Vie Est Cadeau" for Luxembourg in 1983, "What's
Another Year" for Ireland in 1987 and
"Everybody" for Estonia in 2001. However last
year, Croatia failed to make the Top 10 from this draw.
Coming soon after Ukraine, and two undoubtedly strong
semi-finalis, is not however the ideal draw for a novelty
song. |
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QUALIFIERS : Given that they have already proved to have some
merit by qualifying and that they now get the plum positions
in the draw, these may well be the two countries that may be
in the fight for
the top positions on May 12th. While position #21 has yet to
produce a winner, #22 brought victory for "Rock
Me" from Yugoslavia in 1989, "Love Shine A
Light" gave the U.K. its most recent victory in Dublin
in 1997 and Latvia won in 2002 coming from nowhere with the
memorable performance of "I Wanna". Almost any
song that comes out of the semi, has a chance of winning
from these positions, as Latvia proved in 2004 so
watch the odds of the two countries which get these slots
plummet immediately after they are announced at the end of
the semi-final. |
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ARMENIA : Having having performed
last in the 2006 final finished in the Top 10 with their
debut entry, it was no surprise to see Armenia go for a late
draw after getting a "wildcard". This is a great
draw for a ballad, and gives Armenia a good chance of a
second Top 10 finish. Armenia will no doubt be hoping that
the qualifiers that are drawn late are uptempo songs and a
strong contrast , to thir entry, nevertheless it's hard to
see Armenia winning the 2007 Eurovision Song Contest. |
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QUALIFIER : It may have surprising
many people that none of the "wildcards" chose to
perform last in the final, until you realkise that you have
to go back to 1989 and "Rock Me" for the last
Eurovision winner to be performed last. Nevertheless it was
surprising that Germany didn't choose this position, given
that their only Eurovision winner "A Little Peace"
was performed last in 1982. Depending on which qualifier
gets this draw, we could have a strong contender from this
draw position, and Armenia will be hoping that it isn't
Serbia's big ballad. |
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